Analyzing the Unknown: How to Make Decisions in Uncertainty

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Let's look at a simple example: a young specialist, Alexander, has just taken up the position of product manager. He was given the task of calculating the time frame for creating a landing page. To make a decision, he has a technical task and a team of 5 employees. However, only one designer was able to give an exact time frame for completing his work - 15 working days. The tasks of the other employees overlap, so it is difficult to name a specific date. The customers need to be informed of the deadline tomorrow, Alexander will have to make a decision in conditions of uncertainty.

In order to guess what lies behind the unknown, you need to look at it critically and answer the following questions.

Am I competent enough in this area?
Beginners tend to overestimate their knowledge and skills, so they often mistakenly set the bar high for themselves. In this case, Alexander would be better off consulting with more experienced specialists who have already worked with such projects.

I learned about the positive experience, but did I ask about the risks?
Alexander asked his colleagues who had already social media marketing service worked on similar landings for advice and suggested what the approximate timeframe would be. But experienced specialists could only tell about successful projects and not mention the failed ones. Therefore, it is also worth clarifying about possible risks.


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Do I understand that the situation may change over time?
Alexander thinks that launching a project is a clear algorithm of actions. But in reality, something can go wrong at each stage, and the result will be different. This also needs to be taken into account when calculating the deadlines.

Does group belief influence my opinion?
Alexander's team consists of people with a lot of experience, so it's hard for him to doubt their words. However, logic tells him that there are inconsistencies in the project. It is necessary to clarify the information, even if it was received from experts.

Could I have missed something important because I focused on only one criterion?
Alexander was extremely focused on setting deadlines and did not pay due attention to the controversial requirements in the technical specifications. He decided that all these problems could be easily solved during the development process, and they would not affect the result and deadlines in any way. However, a project is a complex work, the success of which depends on various factors. It is worth analyzing the whole picture, and not just one aspect.

This list of questions is relative and does not provide new data, but it allows us to delve deeper into the problem and determine what we know for sure. Perhaps you will also find our free online course " Change Management " useful, from which you will understand how to effectively respond to changes in the external environment, set goals and assess the risks of innovations.